Hurricane Milton - Oct 9 - Midday

You can comment on this at:

• blog.spacehey.com

Hurricane Milton Advisory

Issued: 11:00 AM EDT, Wednesday, October 9, 2024

Overview

Hurricane Milton remains a powerful Category 4 hurricane as it approaches the west-central coast of Florida. The storm is expected to make landfall tonight, bringing life-threatening storm surge, devastating winds, and heavy rainfall leading to catastrophic flooding. The time to prepare, including evacuating if told to do so, is quickly coming to an end along the Florida west coast.

Current Status

• Location: Approximately 160 miles west-southwest of Fort Myers, Florida, and about 190 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida.
• Coordinates: Latitude 25.8° North, Longitude 84.3° West
• Movement: Northeast at 17 mph
• Maximum Sustained Winds: 145 mph (Category 4 hurricane)
• Minimum Central Pressure: 931 millibars

Forecast Track

Milton is moving northeastward and is expected to:

• Today: Continue moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
• Tonight: Make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida.
• Thursday: Move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean.
• Thursday and Friday: Turn toward the east-northeast and east, moving over the western Atlantic.

Please Note: While the forecast track is well-defined, there is still some uncertainty. Effects can extend far from the storm's center, so do not focus solely on the exact path.

Intensity Forecast

• Current Strength: Milton is a powerful Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph.
• Fluctuations: Some weakening is expected due to increased wind shear, but Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the Florida coast tonight.
• Approaching Florida: Milton's wind field is expanding, increasing the area affected by destructive winds, including areas north of the landfall location.

Expected Impacts

Florida Peninsula

• Storm Surge:
  • Potential Heights: Up to 15 feet above ground level in some areas, especially from Anna Maria Island to Boca Grande, including Tampa Bay.
  • Affected Areas: Significant coastal flooding expected along the west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay.
  • East Coast Surge: 3 to 5 feet possible from Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, including the St. Johns River.
• Wind:
  • Hurricane Conditions: Expected in the Hurricane Warning areas beginning this evening through Thursday morning.
  • Tropical Storm Conditions: Expected to begin in the warning areas on the west coast within a few hours, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast tonight.
  • Expansion of Winds: Strong, gusty winds may occur even north of the landfall location due to the storm's interaction with a frontal boundary.
• Rainfall:
  • Amounts: 6 to 12 inches widespread; isolated totals up to 18 inches, especially in central to northern Florida.
  • Timing: Through Thursday.
  • Flooding Risks: High risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding, urban flooding, and river flooding.
  • Combined Flooding: Coastal storm surge and inland rainfall may combine to exacerbate flooding.
• Tornadoes: Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida.
• Surf and Rip Currents: Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are expected along the Gulf Coast and parts of the Atlantic Coast.

Georgia and South Carolina Coasts

• Tropical Storm Conditions: Expected along the Georgia coast on Thursday; possible within the watch area on the South Carolina coast.
• Storm Surge: 2 to 4 feet of surge possible from Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

Northwestern Bahamas

• Tropical Storm Conditions: Expected on Thursday, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini.

Watches and Warnings

Florida

• Storm Surge Warning:
  • Areas: Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay.
  • **East coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, including the St. Johns River.
• Hurricane Warning:
  • Areas: Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay.
  • **Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach.
• Storm Surge Watch:
  • Areas: North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.
• Hurricane Watch:
  • Areas: Dry Tortugas; Lake Okeechobee; Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach; Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River; Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line.
• Tropical Storm Warning:
  • Areas: Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay; Lake Okeechobee; Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach; Florida west coast from north of Suwannee River to Indian Pass; Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo; North of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to the Savannah River; Extreme northwestern Bahamas.
• Tropical Storm Watch:
  • Areas: North of the Savannah River to South Santee River, South Carolina.

Definitions:

• Storm Surge Warning: Danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland within 36 hours.
• Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.
• Storm Surge Watch: Possibility of life-threatening inundation within 48 hours.
• Hurricane Watch: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours.
• Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.
• Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours.

Preparation Recommendations

For Residents in Florida:

1. Stay Informed:

   • Monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center and local officials.
   • Be aware of evacuation orders and shelter locations.

2. Complete Preparations Immediately:

   • This is your last opportunity to prepare.
   • Secure outdoor items and reinforce windows and doors.
   • Prepare for prolonged power outages; have generators ready if available.
   • Ensure vehicles have fuel.

3. Emergency Supplies:

   • Gather enough water, non-perishable food, medications, and essential supplies for at least several days.
   • Have batteries, flashlights, and a battery-powered radio.
   • Charge mobile devices and have backup power sources.

4. Plan for Evacuation:

   • Know your evacuation zone and route.
   • Arrange for pets and secure important documents.
   • Inform family or friends of your plans.

5. Safety First:

   • Follow all instructions from local officials promptly.
   • Evacuate immediately if ordered; time is running out.
   • Avoid coastal areas during the storm.
   • Never drive through flooded roads.
   • Be cautious of downed power lines and debris after the storm.

Key Messages

1. Life-Threatening Storm Surge: A large area of destructive storm surge, with inundations of 10 feet or greater, is expected along portions of the west-central coast of Florida. This is an extremely life-threatening situation. The time to evacuate, if told to do so by local officials, is quickly coming to a close.

2. Devastating Winds: Hurricane-force winds are expected along parts of the west coast of Florida. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula, with life-threatening winds spreading inland.

3. Catastrophic Flooding: Heavy rainfall will lead to catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding, urban flooding, and river flooding in Florida. Flooding will be worsened where coastal storm surge and inland rainfall combine.

4. Limited Time to Act: Preparations should be completed over the next couple of hours. There may not be enough time to safely evacuate later today.

5. Monitor Official Updates: Keep up with information from the National Hurricane Center and local emergency management agencies. Changes in the storm's path or intensity can occur.

Conclusion

Hurricane Milton is a powerful Category 4 hurricane posing a catastrophic threat to Florida. Immediate action is required to protect life and property. Residents in the affected areas should take this situation very seriously and follow all instructions from local authorities without delay. Your safety and the safety of your loved ones are the top priority.

For More Information:

• National Hurricane Center: www.hurricanes.gov
• Local Weather Updates: Tune into local news stations and weather services.
• Emergency Alerts: Ensure your mobile devices are set to receive emergency notifications.
• Evacuation Information: Contact your local emergency management office for evacuation routes and shelter locations.

Stay safe and take all necessary precautions as Hurricane Milton approaches.

You can comment on this at:

• blog.spacehey.com