Hurricane Milton - Oct 7 - Midday

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Overview

Hurricane Milton has rapidly intensified into a powerful Category 4 hurricane and is expected to become a Category 5 later today. The storm poses a significant threat to parts of Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula and the west coast of Florida. Residents in these areas should prepare immediately for life-threatening conditions, including dangerous storm surge, destructive winds, and heavy rainfall leading to flooding.

Current Status

• Location: Approximately 130 miles west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 720 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida.
• Coordinates: Latitude 21.7° North, Longitude 91.7° West
• Movement: East-southeast at 9 mph
• Maximum Sustained Winds: 155 mph (Category 4 hurricane)
• Minimum Central Pressure: 933 millibars

Forecast Track

Milton is expected to continue moving east-southeastward today, then turn eastward and eventually northeastward on Tuesday and Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to:

• Today and Tuesday: Move near or just north of the Yucatán Peninsula.
• Wednesday: Cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula.

Please Note: Forecast tracks can change. Effects can extend far from the storm's center, so do not focus solely on the exact path.

Intensity Forecast

• Strengthening: Milton is forecast to become a Category 5 hurricane later today, with winds exceeding 157 mph.
• Peak Intensity: Expected to reach peak strength today, remaining a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) through Wednesday.
• Approaching Florida: Some weakening is possible before landfall due to natural fluctuations and increased wind shear. However, Milton is still expected to be a large and powerful hurricane when it reaches Florida.

Expected Impacts

Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico

• Wind:
  • Hurricane Conditions: Expected in the warning area beginning late today or tonight.
  • Tropical Storm Conditions: Expected to begin early this afternoon.
• Storm Surge: Water levels could rise 4 to 6 feet above normal along the northern coast, accompanied by large and destructive waves.
• Rainfall:
  • Amounts: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals up to 6 inches.
  • Flooding Risks: Potential for localized flooding.

Florida Peninsula and Keys

• Storm Surge:
  • Potential Heights: 8 to 12 feet above ground level in some areas, especially from Anclote River to Englewood, including Tampa Bay.
  • Affected Areas: Significant coastal flooding possible along the west coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River.
• Wind:
  • Hurricane Conditions: Possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday.
  • Tropical Storm Conditions: Possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday.
• Rainfall:
  • Amounts: 5 to 10 inches widespread; isolated totals up to 15 inches.
  • Timing: Starting today, with heavier rain from Tuesday through Wednesday night.
  • Flooding Risks: High risk of flash flooding, urban flooding, and river flooding, potentially moderate to major in severity.
• Surf and Rip Currents: Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are expected along the Gulf Coast.

Watches and Warnings

Mexico

• Hurricane Warning: Celestún to Río Lagartos
• Hurricane Watch: Río Lagartos to Cabo Catoche; Campeche to south of Celestún
• Tropical Storm Warning: Río Lagartos to Cancún; Campeche to south of Celestún

Florida

• Hurricane Watch:
  • Areas: Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay; Dry Tortugas; Lake Okeechobee
• Storm Surge Watch:
  • Areas: Flamingo northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
• Tropical Storm Watch:
  • Areas: Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee; north of the mouth of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass; Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay

Definitions:

• Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions are expected within 36 hours.
• Hurricane Watch: Hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours.
• Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours.
• Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours.
• Storm Surge Watch: Life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland is possible within 48 hours.

Preparation Recommendations

For Residents in the Yucatán Peninsula:

1. Complete Preparations Immediately:
   • Secure your home and property.
   • Stock up on emergency supplies.
2. Follow Local Authorities:
   • Evacuate if instructed.
   • Stay informed through local news and weather updates.

For Residents in Florida:

1. Stay Informed:

   • Monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center and local officials.
   • Be aware of evacuation orders and shelter locations.

2. Prepare Your Home:

   • Secure outdoor items and reinforce windows and doors.
   • Check and prepare emergency generators and backup power sources.

3. Emergency Supplies:

   • Gather enough water, non-perishable food, medications, and essential supplies for at least three days.
   • Ensure you have batteries, flashlights, and a battery-powered radio.

4. Plan for Evacuation:

   • Know your evacuation zone and route.
   • Arrange for pets and secure important documents.

5. Safety First:

   • Avoid coastal areas during the storm.
   • Never drive through flooded roads.
   • Be cautious of downed power lines and debris after the storm.

Key Messages

1. Life-Threatening Conditions Expected: Milton is forecast to become a Category 5 hurricane. Significant storm surge, destructive winds, and heavy rainfall are likely in affected areas.

2. Urgent Preparations Needed: Residents in the warning and watch areas should complete preparations and follow evacuation orders from local officials.

3. Heavy Rainfall Ahead of the Storm: Flooding risks are high due to heavy rainfall expected today through Wednesday night in Florida.

4. Monitor Official Updates: Keep up with information from the National Hurricane Center and local emergency management agencies.

Conclusion

Hurricane Milton is a rapidly intensifying and dangerous storm posing a significant threat to parts of Mexico and Florida. Immediate action is required to protect life and property. Stay vigilant, complete preparations, and follow all instructions from local authorities. Your safety is the top priority.

For More Information:

• National Hurricane Center: www.hurricanes.gov
• Local Weather Updates: Tune into local news stations and weather services.
• Emergency Alerts: Ensure your mobile devices are set to receive emergency notifications.

Stay safe and take all necessary precautions as Hurricane Milton approaches.

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